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Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises; talks collapse accelerates military risk.
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Nvidia retains a near-monopoly on AI training silicon with Blackwell ramping and Rubin sampling. CUDA software moat is intact. However hyperscaler capex peak debate is intensifying as AMD MI400 and custom ASICs from MSFT/META/AMZN gain share. Sovereign AI demand from Middle East and Europe partially offsets cyclical risk.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
NVIDIA Corporation is headquartered in United States, which is currently showing elevated risk signals.
🇺🇸United States82EXITView United States risk detail →💻Semiconductors1WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 11 | +16% | ↓93% | EARLY |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | 11 | +14% | ↓93% | EARLY |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 11 | +14% | ↓93% | EARLY |
| ON | ON Semiconductor Corporation | 11 | -12% | ↓93% | AVOID |
| UMC | United Microelectronics Corporation | 11 | +7% | ↓93% | NEUTRAL |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed Inc. | 11 | -29% | ↓93% | AVOID |
| STM | STMicroelectronics N.V. | 11 | +12% | ↓93% | NEUTRAL |
Investors who hold NVDA may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Saudi PIF announces $40B AI compute deal with Nvidia
MSFT custom Maia chip allocation grows
Rubin platform tape-out at TSMC N2
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures
Military clash between China and Taiwan forces directly materializes the core tension scenario. Resolution hinges on whether partial thaw prevents escalation to armed conflict.
KIA-China rare earth trade disruption by end-2026 serves as key indicator of embargo implementation during Taiwan Strait tensions.
NVIDIA's AI accelerator revenue share exceeding 80% in H2 2026 directly quantifies monopoly deepening in GPU/accelerator markets, the core infrastructure constraint.
Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2028, directly capturing the capex-cycle contraction phase following infrastructure overbuild in the ai-infrastructure scenario.
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert CisnerosCA | Sell | $1k–$15k | Aug 18, 26 | ||
| Cory A Booker | Sell | $15k–$50k | Aug 11, 26 | ||
| Gilbert CisnerosCA | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jul 17, 26 | ||
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Sell | $15k–$50k | Aug 13, 26 | ||
| John J Mr McGuireVA | Buy | $1k–$15k | Aug 18, 26 | ||
| Michael RulliOH | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jul 31, 25 | ||
| Michael RulliOH | Buy | $1k–$15k | Aug 1, 25 | ||
| Michael RulliOH | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 25, 26 | ||
| Sam T. LiccardoCA | Sell | Unknown amount | Jul 21, 26 | ||
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1k–$15k | Mar 30, 26 | ||
| Alan Armstrong | Buy | $50k–$100k | Mar 27, 26 | ||
| Dan NewhouseWA | Sell | $1k–$15k | Jul 10, 26 | ||
| Cleo FieldsLA | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 26, 26 | ||
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Sell | $15k–$50k | Jun 30, 26 | ||
| Daniel MeuserPA | Sell | $1k–$15k | May 27, 26 | ||
| Matthew Robert Van EppsTN | Buy | $1k–$15k | Jun 16, 26 | ||
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Sell | $100k–$250k | May 8, 26 | ||
| Daniel MeuserPA | R | Sell | $1k–$15k | Apr 24, 26 | -3.8% |
| Donald J. TrumpFL | R | Buy | $1.0M–$1.0M | Jan 6, 26 | -6.5% |
| John McGuireVA | R | Buy | $1k–$15k | Apr 15, 26 | -6.5% |