CAC 40
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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
Military clash between China and Taiwan forces directly materializes the core tension scenario. Resolution hinges on whether partial thaw prevents escalation to armed conflict.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
Strait of Hormuz blockade directly triggers oil price disruption through Persian Gulf transit closure, core mechanism of red-sea-suez scenario escalation.
Strait of Hormuz normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea–Suez escalation and Iran regional conflict dynamics. Market captures core geopolitical outcome.
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Paris benchmark; luxury goods, energy majors, and global industrials drive the weighting.
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