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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli
No Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents the inverse scenario to an orderly cut cycle, triggered by unchanged federal funds rate policy throughout the year.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects disruption risk from regional conflict and war risk premiums affecting shipping corridor viability.
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Price-weighted index of 30 large, blue-chip US companies across industrials, finance, and consumer sectors.
30 large-cap stocks