IBEX 35
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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
Strait of Hormuz traffic return by September end measures tanker corridor recovery; extended timeline captures sustained stress from naval or mining-related disruptions.
Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects disruption risk from regional conflict and war risk premiums affecting shipping corridor viability.
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Spanish blue-chip index; banks, utilities, and Latin America–exposed multinationals lead.
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