S&P 500
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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.
North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.
EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly operationalizes regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure through compliance mechanisms and legal consequences.
KIA-China rare earth trade disruption by end-2026 serves as key indicator of embargo implementation during Taiwan Strait tensions.
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500 large-cap stocks