LOW IMPACT[80% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Sustained supply crunch [60%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Capex cycle overshoots, bubble pops
Hyperscaler overbuild leads to datacenter glut; AI ROI falls short of projections; capex cuts trigger GPU inventory correction; Nvidia stock -40%.
Trade lens —NVDA -40% on inventory correction; data-center and PPA-demand assumptions cut; MSFT and GOOG application-layer multiples expand on cheaper infra. · structural · slow
Policy lens —FERC rescinds priority interconnection status for speculative datacentre projects; the Commerce Department reassesses export-licence backlogs as demand signals weaken; state-level PUCs in Texas and Virginia open rate-case reviews on datacentre power agreements.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
80%
Generative AI
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~50%
Sustained supply
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.