Joint probability of this outcome

~10%

Scenario65%Branch35%Outcome35%Final~10%

If every step plays out as described, the joint probability is the product below. We're sketching the path, not predicting it. Rounded to the nearest 5%; the underlying authoring is not precise enough to justify finer units.

HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Export control escalation [35%]→[35% path]

China accelerates domestic semis

Beijing doubles SMIC and Hua Hong investment; targets 28nm self-sufficiency by 2027; allied chip equipment controls further tightened in response.

Trade lens —ASML China revenue gap permanent; chip-equipment makers (KLAC, ONTO) capture parallel-capacity orders; JPY exporters bid on Tokyo Electron strength. · structural · slow

Policy lens —The Commerce Department tightens the Foreign Direct Product Rule to close H20-class loopholes; Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry follows with parallel export controls; Beijing designates semiconductor self-sufficiency a national security priority and accelerates SMIC state-directed investment.

no signals (7d)

Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~25%

Export control

This path

~10%

overall probability

If this path occurs — direct market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Controls prove effective; allies coordinate tighter enforcement 🇯🇵JP· Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical benefit from Western fab orders

Companies

$KLACKLA Corporation· meaningful· Western fab equipment demand as China builds parallel capacity $ONTOOnto Innovation· small· Process control orders for non-China capacity buildout

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Billions invested in catch-up that may never reach frontier nodes

Companies

$ASMLASML· structural· China was ~30% of revenue; permanent loss accelerates $NVDANvidia· meaningful· H20/L20 loophole closed; total China revenue loss

Cost of inaction

If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.

▲ Missed gains if not positioned

low confidence$KLAC+15%in 1yr

▼ Realized losses if not hedged

medium confidence$ASML−20%in 1yr

low confidence$NVDA−10%in 1yr

Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.

Find live signals →← Back to Export control escalation

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly

Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

Joint probability of this outcome

~10%

Scenario65%Branch35%Outcome35%Final~10%

HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]→Export control escalation [35%]→[35% path]

China accelerates domestic semis

Beijing doubles SMIC and Hua Hong investment; targets 28nm self-sufficiency by 2027; allied chip equipment controls further tightened in response.

Trade lens —ASML China revenue gap permanent; chip-equipment makers (KLAC, ONTO) capture parallel-capacity orders; JPY exporters bid on Tokyo Electron strength. · structural · slow

no signals (7d)

Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.

Scenario odds

65%

Taiwan Strait

Y-path odds

~25%

Export control

This path

~10%

overall probability

If this path occurs — direct market impact

Winners

Countries

🇺🇸US· Controls prove effective; allies coordinate tighter enforcement 🇯🇵JP· Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical benefit from Western fab orders

Companies

$KLACKLA Corporation· meaningful· Western fab equipment demand as China builds parallel capacity $ONTOOnto Innovation· small· Process control orders for non-China capacity buildout

Losers

Countries

🇨🇳CN· Billions invested in catch-up that may never reach frontier nodes

Companies

$ASMLASML· structural· China was ~30% of revenue; permanent loss accelerates $NVDANvidia· meaningful· H20/L20 loophole closed; total China revenue loss

Cost of inaction

If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.

▲ Missed gains if not positioned

low confidence$KLAC+15%in 1yr

▼ Realized losses if not hedged

medium confidence$ASML−20%in 1yr

low confidence$NVDA−10%in 1yr

Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.

Find live signals →← Back to Export control escalation

Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly

Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.