HIGH IMPACT[65% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Military pressure campaign [40%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Accidental hot incident
Miscalculation during exercises leads to exchange of fire; US destroyer and PLA frigate damaged; markets enter crisis mode.
Trade lens —TSM gaps down hard; defense primes (LMT) bid on emergency Pacific procurement; AAPL repriced on iPhone supply-chain freeze; Treasuries strongly bid. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Washington invokes War Powers notification to Congress and activates the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty; allied capitals freeze Chinese sovereign assets and coordinate SWIFT restriction packages within 48 hours.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
65%
Taiwan Strait
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Military pressure
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.