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Themes:🧠AI Chip Bottleneck 🚢Red Sea Escalation ⚓Shipping Lane Fragmentation 🏗India Infrastructure Supercycle

159 signals for Economic · Oman · Update

Page 1 of 7

EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania

🇴🇲

Oman

5d ago

The fiscal stance, a measure based on the increase in net expenditure (deficit), including that financed by the EU budget, relative to medium-term potential GDP growth, will decrease from 2.5% of GDP this year (2.2% of GDP in 2025) to 0.7% of GDP in 2027, according to the European Commission's projection included in the Convergence Report published on June 22. This implies that the budget planning would require fewer consolidation measures compared to the budgets of 2025 and 2026.  The Commission, however, assumes the country's economic growth would accelerate to 2.3% next year, from modest performances in 2025 (+0.7%) and this year (+0.1%). Based on the fiscal consolidation plan revised by the European Commission last July, the magnitude of the fiscal consolidation will ease in the coming years because of above-plan performance in 2025-2026. Net expenditure grew by 0.5% in 2025, which is below the recommended maximum growth rate of 2.8%.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman25d ago

Romania’s retail sales posted a 5.4% y/y contraction in April, after they dropped by 5.9% y/y in Q1, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The seasonally-adjusted sales returned to the weak readings in January-February after a brief improvement in March, along a downward trend driven by the shrinking household incomes but also by fragile consumer confidence. Private consumption thus returned to more sustainable levels, after steep expansion (+8.6%) in 2024, followed by a modest 0.2% advance in 2025.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇳🇿New Zealand 🇴🇲Oman28d ago

A characterisation made without rejection? Not on Nicola Willis’s watch. If you’ve been watching Nicola Willis over the past week, you might have noticed the finance minister is fond of responding to a question or statement thus: “I reject that characterisation.” The line is well rehearsed.

5.3/10·The Spinoff

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman35d ago

Romania will likely face a deeper recession than currently anticipated as part of an unavoidable economic adjustment process aimed at correcting the country’s fiscal and external imbalances, economic analyst Radu Crăciun said during the FIAR 2026 International Insurance and Reinsurance Forum organised by Xprimm. All that can be done is securing a soft landing without IMF intervention, he argued, as reported by Economica.net . Crăciun, who is also a professor at the Bucharest University of Economic Studies (ASE) and former president of the Association for Private Pensions in Romania (APAPR), argued that a “soft landing” of the economy necessarily implies slower growth and contractionary effects.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman42d ago

Fitch Ratings upgraded the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Banca Transilvania (BVB: TLV) from BBB- to BBB, placing the lender one notch above Romania’s sovereign rating. Banca Transilvania, listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, is the largest bank in Romania by assets. “Fitch Ratings considers Banca Transilvania to be more resilient than the environment in which it operates due to its strong financial performance, very good capitalisation, access to international markets and financing strategy through MREL eligible bonds,” the bank said in a statement.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman42d ago

Romania’s current account (CA) deficit narrowed by 13.3% y/y to EUR 5.34 billion in the first quarter of the year (Q1) and by 3.4% y/y to EUR 29.1 billion in 12 months to March 2026, according to data published by the National Bank of Romania (BNR). In broader terms, the narrowing of the CA deficit is also consistent with fiscal consolidation in Q1, when the public deficit halved to 1.0% of GDP from 2.2% in the same period of 2025. The main driver for Romania’s CA deficit narrowing was the contraction of the import of goods, in both gross (-2.1% y/y) and net (-11.7% /y) import of goods, caused by subdued consumption and economic activity in Q1: the retail sales plunged by 5.8% y/y and the GDP contracted by 1.7% y/y.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇲🇱Mali 🇴🇲Oman43d ago

On May 15, 2026, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its BBB- sovereign credit ratings on Romania, as well as the negative outlook, citing expectations for quick political normalisation, full absorption of EU funds (3.5% of GDP), and the drafting of a 2027 budget plan in line with the fiscal consolidation trajectory agreed with the European Commission.  In its ad-hoc update report, S&P set quite high “baseline expectations” given the complicated political context in the country and the resistance posed by entrenched interests in mainstream ruling parties to genuine reforms. The baseline scenario came, however, with a consistent list of risks attached, including economic and political challenges that could undermine Romania's medium-term fiscal adjustment plan. In support of its high expectations, S&P specifically pointed to the broad fiscal consensus across key parties to support further sizable consolidation measures this year and next, including the approval of a credible 2027 budget.

5.3/10·Romania Insider·Mali

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman48d ago

The Romanian economy declined in the first quarter of the year by 1.7% on the gross series, compared with the same period in 2025, and by 1.5% on the seasonally adjusted series, according to flash estimates  published Wednesday, May 12, by the National Institute of Statistics.  The same source noted that compared with the last quarter of 2025, GDP decreased by 0.2% in Q1 2026. This follows a contraction in Q4 2025, when GDP fell by 1.4% in real terms compared with the same period in 2024, and by 1.8% compared with Q3 2025. Overall, Romania’s economy grew by 0.7% last year, according to data published last week by the National Institute of Statistics.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇴🇲Oman 🇷🇴Romania48d ago

The demand for retail state bonds under the May issue of the Fidelis scheme operated at Bucharest Exchange until May 15 is weaker than in previous months, according to Profit.ro . The monthly issue is likely to end with a new record low outcome, after low results posted in February. In May, the Treasury cut the yields after the significant hike in April under the shock of rising inflation and deteriorated inflation outlook through March.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman48d ago

Analysts have revised upward their forecasts for the Romanian leu’s exchange rate following political turmoil and capital outflows in recent weeks, although most projections still imply further real appreciation of the currency after years of nominal stability amid elevated inflation. The leu weakened rapidly during the latest wave of market tensions, briefly approaching RON 5.3 per euro, but economists noted that the currency still remains stronger in real terms compared with previous years due to Romania’s persistently higher inflation relative to trading partners. BCR, Romania’s second-largest bank by assets, said in a recent report cited by Ziarul Financiar that it now expects the exchange rate to reach RON 5.25 per euro by the end of 2026, compared to its previous forecast of RON 5.17.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman48d ago

Experts of Babes Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca, compiling the Romanian Economic Monitor (RoEM), forecasted economic contraction of 0.5% this year amid political instability, a sharp revision from the 0.2% growth projected after the chronicisation of the  Middle East war and a more optimistic 0.8% growth set at the beginning of the year. The economy will return to growth with a robust 2.2% advance in 2027, driven by the positive effects of fiscal consolidation and lower inflation, according to the RoEM-UBB forecast. The main element seen as dragging down the economic growth this year, as well as restoring growth in 2027, is private consumption.

5.3/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran 🇴🇲Oman11d ago

A temporary US-Iran peace agreement initially boosted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a two-month high with 25 ships crossing on Thursday, but merchant vessel passages dropped again on Friday following reports of a mine near Oman and new Iranian demands for shipping permits and mandatory insurance.

5.2/10·NRK Nyheter (Norway)·Strait Of Hormuz, null

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EconomicUpdate🇮🇷Iran 🇴🇲Oman 🇺🇸United States53d ago

Iranian state forces detained the tanker Ocean Koi in the Gulf of Oman, a vessel that had previously been designated by the United States as part of Iran's shadow fleet for covert crude oil exports. The ship was reportedly carrying Iranian oil, though Iranian officials offered limited clarity on the reasons for its detention, highlighting growing complications within Iran's sanctions-evasion shipping network.

5.2/10·Oil Price (Energy Intel)·Gulf Of Oman

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman53d ago

Romania's Treasury head Stefan Nanu ruled out the risk of a sovereign downgrade if fiscal consolidation measures are maintained, stating the country is on track with a 1% Q1 budget deficit against a 6.2% annual target. However, rating agencies remain cautious due to ongoing political turmoil, with interim finance minister Alexandru Nazare acknowledging concerns and admitting that instability is pressuring the exchange rate, though the National Bank of Romania is acting to stabilize conditions.

5.2/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇪🇸Spain 🇴🇲Oman32d ago

# Translation Andalusia, despite the "economic miracle" touted by the Moreno Government, carries a historical gap in terms of inequality and poverty. The Liberación Foundation provides comprehensive care in the North Polygon of Seville to drug-dependent people, but also to the most vulnerable neighbors who need to resolve doubts about administration. The Andalusian Regional Government requires homeless people to have a pre-agreement contract in order to grant them housing rental assistance.

5.1/10·eldiario.es·Seville

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman33d ago

Brașov has spent the last few years quietly repositioning itself. Once thought of mainly as a tourism destination or a secondary urban market, the city is increasingly being treated as a genuine alternative to Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca: by buyers relocating from larger cities, by Romanians returning from abroad, and by investors looking for a more balanced, less overheated market. KRONBAU Euro Development has built its portfolio around that shift.

5.1/10·Romania Insider·Bucharest, Bucharest

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EconomicUpdate🇧🇪Belgium 🇴🇲Oman 🇷🇴Romania35d ago

The Labour Ministry has published for debate the Wage Law for the budgetary sector, a bill backed by all members of the former ruling coalition under an agreement mediated by the Presidency. The bill, already criticised by the trade unions in health and police, aims to set the income policies in the budgetary sector on more transparent and fair grounds, eliminating more than half of the bonuses added over time for various categories of employees.  Streamlining the pay system in the budgetary sector is a milestone under the RRF/PNRR, with a grant of over EUR 700 million attached. The endorsement of the law by the end of June would bode well for the functioning of the fragile agreement reached by the members of the ruling coalition for the main priorities set under the RRF/PNRR, the SAFE defence endowment scheme, OECD candidacy, and fiscal consolidation. But the protests promoted by the trade unions, historically controlled by the Social Democrats (PSD), may leave the door open for last-minute complications.

5.1/10·Romania Insider·Brussels, Brussels Capital

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EconomicUpdate🇦🇫Afghanistan 🇵🇰Pakistan 🇮🇷Iran+112d ago

Afghanistan Bans Entry of Iranian and Pakistani Currencies mursaleen Thu, 06/18/2026 - 17:04 Author Liluma Qadiry Business Da Afghanistan Bank has announced a ban on the entry of Iranian and Pakistani currencies into Afghanistan. The central bank said the measure is aimed at preserving the value of the afghani and has urged traders, money exchangers, transport companies, and travelers to refrain from bringing these currencies into the country. The bank emphasized that the afghani has maintained relative stability compared with many regional currencies, adding that protecting the national currency is essential for strengthening the country’s economy.

4.9/10·TOLOnews

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman14d ago

Romania's current account (CA) deficit narrowed by 12% y/y to EUR 7.98 billion in the first four months of 2026, from EUR 9.1 billion in the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the National Bank of Romania (BNR). The deficit-to-GDP ratio for the first four months of the year dropped to 2.1%, down from 2.5% in the same period last year – in line with the state forecasting body’s expectations for a 1.2 percentage point contraction in the country’s CA deficit from 7.9% in 2025 to 6.7% this year (and 6.0% in 2029). The improvement was mainly driven by a smaller trade deficit and a higher surplus in services.

4.9/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇴🇲Oman 🇷🇴Romania25d ago

Romanian GDP stagnated in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the last three months of the previous year and fell by 1.1% compared with the same period in 2025, according to provisional data published on Friday, June 5, by the National Institute of Statistics  (INS).  According to INS, the seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product was estimated at RON 497,820 billion at current prices in Q1 2026. In real terms, meaning after removing the effect of inflation, the economy fell by 1.1% compared with Q1 2025. Compared with Q4 2025, GDP remained unchanged.  On the unadjusted series, estimated GDP for Q1 2026 was RON 403,915.4 billion at current prices, down 1.2% compared with the same period last year.

4.9/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇴🇲Oman 🇷🇴Romania43d ago

Patria Bank (BVB: PBK) closed the first quarter of 2026 with a net profit of RON 11.3 million, up 12% compared to the same period of the previous year. The result reflects “the consolidation of commercial activity, improved operational efficiency, and the maintenance of prudent risk management discipline in a macroeconomic and sector environment characterized by high volatility and persistently elevated financing costs,” the bank said. The positive performance was supported by the increase in net banking income, the optimization of the funding structure, and the balanced growth of the performing loan portfolio.

4.9/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman18d ago

The annual inflation rate in Romania in May 2026 (compared to May 2025) was 10.9%, the highest level in the last 12 months, according to data published on Friday, June 12, by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). In April, the inflation rate stood at 10.7% .  The largest price increases were recorded in services, which became 13.53% more expensive over one year. During the same period, prices of non-food goods increased by 12.54%, while food goods rose by 6.78%.

4.7/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman19d ago

Romania’s public debt increased by RON 33.2 billion (EUR 6.5 billion) during the first quarter of 2026, the Finance Ministry announced on June 10, on foreign currency bond issuances that totalled EUR 4.5 billion (EUR 3 billion and USD 1.73 billion) during March.  The stock of debt reached RON 1.17 trillion (EUR 229.6 billion) at the end of March. The average cost of public debt eased to 4.7% in the first quarter of the year. The debt-to-GDP ratio, 60.2% at the end of March, exceeded the 60% threshold for the first time ever under semi-definitive terms (based on rolling 4-quarter GDP).

4.7/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman20d ago

Romania’s trade deficit in the 12 months to April contracted by 10.6% y/y to EUR 31.9 billion, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The deficit-to-GDP ratio reached 8.3%, subject to a slight downward adjustment after the Q2 GDP release, from 9.9% in April 2025.  On the downside, the trade balance improvement, however, occurred amid lower foreign trade activity measured as a ratio to total GDP, on both the export and import sides. The improvement in the country’s trade balance, driven by subdued domestic demand (particularly for consumption), is expected to continue.

4.7/10·Romania Insider

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EconomicUpdate🇷🇴Romania 🇴🇲Oman43d ago

The Ministry of Finance concluded in May 2026 the weakest Fidelis issue in the history of the program: about RON 714 million in equivalent, less than in any other month in the six and a half years since the launch of government bonds intended for the population, Ziarul Financiar reported. After it hiked the coupons attached to the bonds sold to households in April, the government offered lower interest rates in May in an attempt to reduce the financing cost. The decision to reduce interest rates came at an inopportune time.

4.7/10·Romania Insider

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