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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.
US recession resolution via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 directly captures the recession phase that would trigger mild-recession-recovery scenario.
The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.
US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.
US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.
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Russia benchmark; energy and metals concentrated. Foreign access remains constrained.
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