LOW IMPACT[80% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Sustained supply crunch [60%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
AMD/custom silicon closes gap
AMD MI400 series plus hyperscaler TPU/Trainium deployment reaches 30%+ of AI training market; Nvidia forced to compete more on price.
Trade lens —AMZN and GOOG custom silicon re-rate on AI-chip share gain; NVDA margins compress toward 65-70%; SK Hynix HBM demand diversifies. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —The Commerce Department approves AMD and Trainium export licences for allied-country datacentres under a revised Validated End-User framework; Congress holds hearings on AI chip competition and supply-chain diversity; the EU AI Office updates its GPAI model-provider register to include Amazon and Google custom silicon.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
80%
Generative AI
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~50%
Sustained supply
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.