LOW IMPACT[80% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Sustained supply crunch [60%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Nvidia near-monopoly deepens
CUDA ecosystem lock-in and CoWoS packaging dominance entrench Nvidia; AMD and custom silicon fail to close the gap; gross margins sustain above 75%.
Trade lens —NVDA, TSM and ASML compound the order-book moat; challengers lose datacenter share; CoWoS capacity remains the binding constraint. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —The FTC opens a Section 2 monopolisation investigation into Nvidia's CUDA and packaging ecosystem; the Commerce Department issues updated Validated End-User authorisation requirements for advanced GPU exports; the EU Digital Markets Act Directorate opens a gatekeeper designation proceeding for Nvidia.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
80%
Generative AI
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~50%
Sustained supply
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.