Prediction Markets

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth directly defines a technical recession, the core trigger for deep-recession scenario.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 indicate monetary policy accommodation consistent with a soft-landing scenario where growth remains stable without recessionary pressures forcing emergency action.

Fed policy reversal toward tightening would push 10-year Treasury yields higher. Market directly tracks whether 10-year yield reaches 6.0%, a level consistent with restrictive policy stance and steepened curve.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026 signals persistent price pressures that would trigger Fed policy reversal away from rate cuts toward maintained or raised rates.

Military clash between China and Taiwan forces directly materializes the core tension scenario. Resolution hinges on whether partial thaw prevents escalation to armed conflict.

US recession occurs when real GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters or NBER announces recession. Fed policy reversal triggering stagflation typically manifests as recession conditions.

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 directly signals policy reversal; sustained high price growth would force Federal Reserve to maintain or raise rates rather than cut.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises; talks collapse accelerates military risk.

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 represents severe inflation resurgence that would necessitate Federal Reserve policy reversal from recent easing cycles.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers the cascade scenario. Recession is the primary condition that prompts Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.

China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio

No Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents the inverse scenario to an orderly cut cycle, triggered by unchanged federal funds rate policy throughout the year.

Frontier model capability milestone (Chatbot Arena score ≥1600) directly measures advancement in frontier AI models, a core component of infrastructure-driven model race dynamics.

Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the cut-cycle-pause trigger. Cuts signal shift from restrictive stance and confirm reversal of prior tightening policy.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures the recession trigger condition. A mild-recession-recovery scenario requires recession occurrence and subsequent recovery trajectory.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.

Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 directly tests whether the Fed reverses course from potential rate cuts, central to assessing policy pivot toward tightening in response to sticky inflation.

Unemployment reaching 7.0% indicates severe labor-market deterioration consistent with deep recession and fed policy reversal necessitating stimulus.

Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 directly measure the orderly cut cycle scenario, with emergency cuts also counted toward the trigger resolution.

AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events within 90 days—directly captures capex overshoot and crash scenario. NVIDIA underperformance is one of the specified resolution criteria.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, within the range of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.5% would signal significant Fed policy tightening or fiscal deterioration, consistent with yield-curve steepening dynamics triggered by policy reversal.

Resolves on exactly 8 Fed rate cuts in 2026. A pause or reversal in policy typically manifests as a specific cumulative cut count over the year.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

Frontier model performance threshold (Chatbot Arena score ≥1550) tracks competitive capability progression among leading AI models competing in the frontier race.

Unemployment reaching 7.0%+ in 2026 is a core stagflation indicator. Fed reversal from rate cuts to hikes can drive unemployment spikes alongside persistent inflation.

U.S. AI safety bill passage directly tests whether regulatory approach favors government mandates or industry self-regulation. Self-regulation-wins scenario resolves negatively if comprehensive federal safety legislation

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027. A backroom EU-Russia deal on energy would likely require parallel or preceding Ukraine peace settlement, as energy normalization typically accompanies conflict resolution

Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.

Strait of Hormuz normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea–Suez escalation and Iran regional conflict dynamics. Market captures core geopolitical outcome.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return by September end measures tanker corridor recovery; extended timeline captures sustained stress from naval or mining-related disruptions.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly depends on whether Iran closes or maintains the strait. Resolution timeline aligns with closure threat scenario.

Brent crude price threshold directly reflects oil market impact from Strait of Hormuz disruption; elevated risk premium manifests as crude price elevation.

Strait of Hormuz control directly determines closure threat scenario. Market outcome resolves the core geopolitical question of who governs the waterway and its accessibility to tanker traffic.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026 directly measures whether the sustained-corridor-closure scenario has resolved, with Iran potentially blocking or restricting passage through this critical oil chokepoi

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is the direct operational manifestation of a closure threat; market resolves on resumption timeline following potential Iranian blockade of the strait.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct physical consequence of Red Sea escalation and regional conflict. Normal traffic return signals de-escalation or successful corridor reopening.

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct consequence of Red Sea escalation and Iran tensions. Resolution hinges on whether regional conflict permits normal passage through this critical chokepoint.

US-Iran ceasefire directly resolves the diplomatic de-escalation pathway for Red Sea/Suez intervention scenario; ceasefire is primary confirmatory signal.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez escalation scenario. Houthi disruptions and Iranian retaliation would prevent normal passage; restoration signals de-escalation.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of the closure threat scenario. The Red Sea/Suez crisis triggers Hormuz closure concerns; normalization signals de-escalation.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 are a primary transmission mechanism for soft-landing scenarios. The number of cuts directly reflects monetary policy easing that supports growth while controlling inflation.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly measures European regulatory implementation and compliance mechanisms central to US-EU regulatory divergence on AI infrastructure.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is the direct outcome measure of a tanker-incident corridor stress scenario. Disruption and recovery timeline directly reflects the severity and duration of the incident.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly operationalizes regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure through compliance mechanisms and legal consequences.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2028. Directly measures the core trigger of the hyperscaler-capex-slashed scenario across Microsoft, Meta, and other major AI infrastructure investors.

China reinstatement or enforcement of gallium export restrictions directly matches the rare-earth embargo scenario trigger. Gallium is explicitly listed in confirmatory signal terms.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

NVIDIA's AI accelerator revenue share exceeding 80% in H2 2026 directly quantifies monopoly deepening in GPU/accelerator markets, the core infrastructure constraint.

Strait of Hormuz blockade directly triggers oil price disruption through Persian Gulf transit closure, core mechanism of red-sea-suez scenario escalation.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects disruption risk from regional conflict and war risk premiums affecting shipping corridor viability.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of Red Sea-Suez escalation; blockade clearance signals de-escalation.

KIA-China rare earth trade disruption by end-2026 serves as key indicator of embargo implementation during Taiwan Strait tensions.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2028, directly capturing the capex-cycle contraction phase following infrastructure overbuild in the ai-infrastructure scenario.

Continuation of China's samarium export controls through end-2027 signals sustained decoupling and rare earth weaponization during Taiwan Strait escalation scenarios.

Food shortage triggered by Strait of Hormuz closure directly reflects corridor stress from tanker disruption and naval conflict affecting global supply chains.

Hormuz shipping corridor return to normal by September 2026 indicates whether regional escalation has subsided or persisted.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and sequence of cuts; orderly cycle implies sustained downward trajectory across scheduled FOMC meetings.

Number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly quantifies the cut-cycle-pause outcome. Magnitude of cuts reveals policy reversal scope and timing.

Earlier-dated Hormuz traffic normalization checkpoint. Resolves whether initial closure threat subsides before Q3 2026, a key phase in the red-sea-suez escalation scenario.

Total number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and pace of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of September serves as inverse indicator of sustained closure. Prolonged disruption prevents traffic restoration within timeframe.

Strait of Hormuz passage normalization timeline reflects resolution of regional conflict; persistence of disruption confirms sustained escalation in the Red Sea-Iran nexus.

Normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 2027 measures whether regional escalation tensions have de-escalated; directly tied to resolution of Iran-related maritime disruptions.

Measures Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery during Trump presidency, directly tied to Iranian actions and regional escalation dynamics that affect chokepoint traffic flows.

Net count of Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies whether the pause ends and cutting cycle resumes after policy reversal.

North Korean ordinance landing on Japanese territory would indicate escalation of ICBM/missile testing cycle on the Korean peninsula, matching the confirmatory signal terms and cascade branch trigger.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly signals resolution of Red Sea–Suez disruption and regional de-escalation. Ceasefire or diplomatic settlement would enable maritime passage recovery.

Strait of Hormuz blockade is the core geopolitical trigger for elevated risk premium on Middle East oil corridor. Market resolution depends on the same disruption event.

AI bubble pop in 2026 resolves on infrastructure capex cycle collapse and GPU demand destruction following overbuild phase.

December 31 deadline for Strait of Hormuz normalization measures whether corridor stress from tanker incidents or naval activity persists through year-end.

Above-ground nuclear test in 2026 directly aligns with seventh nuclear test scenario. North Korea's Punggye-ri site has conducted six previous tests; confirmatory signals include nuclear test occurrence and UN Security C

ASML Cymer export controls directly trigger allied semiconductor equipment restrictions. Taiwan Strait tensions drive US policy tightening on advanced chip manufacturing tools supplied by Netherlands-based ASML.