Prediction Markets

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.

China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly determine whether an orderly cut cycle materializes; measures the primary trigger of scheduled and emergency cuts.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly resolve on the pause-versus-cut decision. A policy reversal toward pause means zero cuts; this market explicitly measures that scenario.

US recession resolution via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 directly captures the recession phase that would trigger mild-recession-recovery scenario.

AI industry downturn triggered by multiple events including NVIDIA performance decline, directly matching capex-cycle overshoot and crash scenario with GPU/data center overbuild resolution criteria.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers rate cuts; recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is the primary economic shock driving Fed policy reversal from tightening to easing.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the cut-cycle scenario; resolves when scheduled or emergency cuts occur, confirming pause-then-resume pattern.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly triggers escalation within the partial-thaw scenario. Defined as use of force including missile strikes or artillery fire between November 2025 and December 202

Federal Reserve rate hike decision in 2026 directly triggers sticky-inflation-policy-pivot scenario. A hike reversal contradicts the pivot signal; rate hikes persist under inflationary pressure.

Federal Reserve executes no rate cuts during 2026, directly measuring the absence of an orderly cutting cycle and potential policy reversal if inflation remains elevated.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces triggers market resolution. Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA exercises directly precede or coincide with talks collapse scenarios.

CPI inflation exceeding 6% in 2026 directly signals inflation resurgence and would trigger Fed policy reversal toward tightening.

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 represents severe inflation resurgence that would necessitate Federal Reserve policy reversal from recent easing cycles.

Frontier AI model achieving 90% on FrontierMath directly measures SOTA model capability advancement, a core metric tracking the frontier model race and compute/AI development trajectory.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, within the range of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026 indicates sustained inflation resurgence requiring Federal Reserve policy adjustment and rate hikes.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

At least one Fed rate cut in 2026 is the expected policy response to recession and rising unemployment; confirms the reversal scenario as cuts materialize.

Resolves on exactly 8 Fed rate cuts in 2026. A pause or reversal in policy typically manifests as a specific cumulative cut count over the year.

CPI exceeding 8% in 2026 signals significant inflation resurgence triggering potential Fed policy reversal and rate hikes.

CPI inflation above 5% in 2026 validates the sticky-inflation premise. Persistent high inflation forces Fed to maintain or raise rates rather than pivot toward cuts.

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct kinetic escalation trigger. Critical infrastructure cyber attack attributed to a state actor could provoke Article 5 if targeting a NATO member, establishing the retaliation cycle

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly resolves on Russian gas flows to EU. A full-cutoff political fracture scenario involving gas cutoffs and Hungary would necessarily entail whether pipelines reopen as a key fractur

CPI inflation exceeding 10% in 2026 would signal demand-side pressures or supply shocks (oil, commodities, food) persisting despite Fed policy, indicating a policy reversal scenario where tightening failed to contain inf

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

CPI inflation exceeding 10% in 2026 represents an advanced wage-price spiral outcome where labor cost pressures and union-negotiated contracts drive sustained high inflation despite potential Fed policy reversal.

10-year Treasury yield movements directly reflect Fed policy stance and bond-market repricing. Yield dips below 3.9% signal either aggressive Fed easing or flight-to-quality demand, core dynamics of policy reversal.

Nord Stream pipeline reactivation directly resolves whether Russian gas flows to EU members, the core trigger for energy independence from Russian supply constraints.

Kim Jong Un's removal as Supreme Leader would directly signal regime instability and potential escalation cycle disruption on the Korean Peninsula.

Federal Reserve will execute 11 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing an aggressive orderly cutting cycle in response to inflation moderation.

Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest-company-by-market-cap status; CUDA ecosystem and GPU monopoly are core drivers of valuation leadership.

AI industry downturn triggered by sustained GPU/chip supply constraints reducing capex spending and hardware availability, directly causing NVIDIA revenue decline and broader AI infrastructure investment pullback.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly triggers EU-Russia energy rapprochement. Commercial gas flows to EU members would signal normalized energy relations and backroom deal execution between Russia and European partne

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

China military offensive against Taiwan by end-2026 represents the most severe escalation from talks collapse in the Taiwan Strait, directly materializing geopolitical tensions and PLA action into armed conflict.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi