Prediction Markets

Stagflation before 2026 midterms explicitly names the scenario condition; combines inflation and unemployment to measure the exact macroeconomic trap driving fed policy reversal.

Strait of Hormuz normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea–Suez escalation and Iran regional conflict dynamics. Market captures core geopolitical outcome.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return by September end measures tanker corridor recovery; extended timeline captures sustained stress from naval or mining-related disruptions.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is a direct indicator of oil corridor disruption risk. Return to normal signals de-escalation of war risk premium in regional shipping.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly depends on whether Iran closes or maintains the strait. Resolution timeline aligns with closure threat scenario.

Brent crude price threshold directly reflects oil market impact from Strait of Hormuz disruption; elevated risk premium manifests as crude price elevation.

Strait of Hormuz control directly determines closure threat scenario. Market outcome resolves the core geopolitical question of who governs the waterway and its accessibility to tanker traffic.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026 directly measures whether the sustained-corridor-closure scenario has resolved, with Iran potentially blocking or restricting passage through this critical oil chokepoi

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is the direct operational manifestation of a closure threat; market resolves on resumption timeline following potential Iranian blockade of the strait.

Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end-2026 endpoint captures sustained-corridor-closure scenario resolution; measures direct passage of closure period.

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct physical consequence of Red Sea escalation and regional conflict. Normal traffic return signals de-escalation or successful corridor reopening.

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct consequence of Red Sea escalation and Iran tensions. Resolution hinges on whether regional conflict permits normal passage through this critical chokepoint.

US-Iran ceasefire directly resolves the diplomatic de-escalation pathway for Red Sea/Suez intervention scenario; ceasefire is primary confirmatory signal.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez escalation scenario. Houthi disruptions and Iranian retaliation would prevent normal passage; restoration signals de-escalation.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of the closure threat scenario. The Red Sea/Suez crisis triggers Hormuz closure concerns; normalization signals de-escalation.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 are a primary transmission mechanism for soft-landing scenarios. The number of cuts directly reflects monetary policy easing that supports growth while controlling inflation.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly measures European regulatory implementation and compliance mechanisms central to US-EU regulatory divergence on AI infrastructure.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization is the direct outcome measure of a tanker-incident corridor stress scenario. Disruption and recovery timeline directly reflects the severity and duration of the incident.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly operationalizes regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure through compliance mechanisms and legal consequences.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2028. Directly measures the core trigger of the hyperscaler-capex-slashed scenario across Microsoft, Meta, and other major AI infrastructure investors.

China reinstatement or enforcement of gallium export restrictions directly matches the rare-earth embargo scenario trigger. Gallium is explicitly listed in confirmatory signal terms.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

NVIDIA's AI accelerator revenue share exceeding 80% in H2 2026 directly quantifies monopoly deepening in GPU/accelerator markets, the core infrastructure constraint.

Strait of Hormuz blockade directly triggers oil price disruption through Persian Gulf transit closure, core mechanism of red-sea-suez scenario escalation.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects disruption risk from regional conflict and war risk premiums affecting shipping corridor viability.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly measures resolution of Red Sea-Suez escalation; blockade clearance signals de-escalation.

KIA-China rare earth trade disruption by end-2026 serves as key indicator of embargo implementation during Taiwan Strait tensions.

Quarterly capex spend among AI hyperscalers decreases before 2028, directly capturing the capex-cycle contraction phase following infrastructure overbuild in the ai-infrastructure scenario.

Continuation of China's samarium export controls through end-2027 signals sustained decoupling and rare earth weaponization during Taiwan Strait escalation scenarios.

Food shortage triggered by Strait of Hormuz closure directly reflects corridor stress from tanker disruption and naval conflict affecting global supply chains.

Hormuz shipping corridor return to normal by September 2026 indicates whether regional escalation has subsided or persisted.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and sequence of cuts; orderly cycle implies sustained downward trajectory across scheduled FOMC meetings.

Number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly quantifies the cut-cycle-pause outcome. Magnitude of cuts reveals policy reversal scope and timing.

Earlier-dated Hormuz traffic normalization checkpoint. Resolves whether initial closure threat subsides before Q3 2026, a key phase in the red-sea-suez escalation scenario.

Total number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude and pace of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of September serves as inverse indicator of sustained closure. Prolonged disruption prevents traffic restoration within timeframe.

Strait of Hormuz passage normalization timeline reflects resolution of regional conflict; persistence of disruption confirms sustained escalation in the Red Sea-Iran nexus.

Normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 2027 measures whether regional escalation tensions have de-escalated; directly tied to resolution of Iran-related maritime disruptions.

Measures Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery during Trump presidency, directly tied to Iranian actions and regional escalation dynamics that affect chokepoint traffic flows.

Net count of Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies whether the pause ends and cutting cycle resumes after policy reversal.

North Korean ordinance landing on Japanese territory would indicate escalation of ICBM/missile testing cycle on the Korean peninsula, matching the confirmatory signal terms and cascade branch trigger.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly signals resolution of Red Sea–Suez disruption and regional de-escalation. Ceasefire or diplomatic settlement would enable maritime passage recovery.

Strait of Hormuz blockade is the core geopolitical trigger for elevated risk premium on Middle East oil corridor. Market resolution depends on the same disruption event.

AI bubble pop in 2026 resolves on infrastructure capex cycle collapse and GPU demand destruction following overbuild phase.

December 31 deadline for Strait of Hormuz normalization measures whether corridor stress from tanker incidents or naval activity persists through year-end.

Above-ground nuclear test in 2026 directly aligns with seventh nuclear test scenario. North Korea's Punggye-ri site has conducted six previous tests; confirmatory signals include nuclear test occurrence and UN Security C

ASML Cymer export controls directly trigger allied semiconductor equipment restrictions. Taiwan Strait tensions drive US policy tightening on advanced chip manufacturing tools supplied by Netherlands-based ASML.

IMF PortWatch 7-day transit average is a standard marker of Strait of Hormuz operational status. Tanker incidents trigger war risk insurance premiums and vessel rerouting, suppressing transit counts until resolution.

Strait of Hormuz transit volume is a direct proxy for corridor disruption severity and risk-premium elevation. Sustained transit declines signal persistent war risk and insurance cost increases.

Combined capex for Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle in 2027 directly reflects hyperscaler infrastructure investment decisions. Slashed capex would reduce combined spending relative to $600B threshold.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez disruption scenario. Ceasefire and diplomatic mediation in Middle East would enable reopening of critical shipping chokepoint.

China's property sector contraction drives overcapacity across manufacturing and construction, triggering deflationary spiral through excess supply, wage pressure, and export dumping as firms seek foreign demand.

Red Sea disruptions to Suez Canal shipping and missile strikes on energy infrastructure directly impact Brent crude pricing through supply constraints and geopolitical risk premium.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly triggers regulatory cascade. OpenAI and NVIDIA datacenter operations subject to compliance requirements under evolving EU framework.

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct consequence of Iranian regional escalation in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Market resolves on restoration of normal shipping through the chokepoint, a key economic indicat

Iran and US reaching a formal nuclear deal by September 2026 directly resolves the diplomatic mediation pathway for de-escalation in the Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz region, as nuclear tensions drive regional intervention dy

Iran closure threat triggers negotiation over Hormuz passage tolls and sanctions relief; market measures the economic resolution mechanism for strait access disputes.

Strait of Hormuz blockade directly triggers regional escalation via Iranian retaliation; core chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil flows and key escalation mechanism in red-sea-suez scenario.

AI bubble pop in 2026 captures overshooting capex deployment followed by demand destruction and infrastructure correction across data center buildout.

Full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan represents extreme manifestation of partial-thaw tensions; defines upper bound of US-China decoupling and Taiwan security crisis.

China invades Taiwan by end of 2027. Market resolves on military action across Taiwan Strait, contingent on escalation of PLA tensions and diplomatic breakdown.

Taiwan invasion represents the ultimate manifestation of Taiwan Strait tensions and failed diplomatic engagement. Talks collapse signals heightened military risk.

US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal. Manifold market on 2026 recession occurrence aligns with scenario's core economic condition.