Taiwan Weighted
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Specific threshold of 6 Fed rate cuts in 2026 captures aggressive monetary easing consistent with a policy reversal triggered by recession or economic weakness.
Unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 captures the recession component of stagflation trap, showing labor market deterioration despite inflationary pressures.
Data center electricity consumption growth reflects underlying GPU and compute infrastructure buildout required to support frontier model training and deployment. Energy demand scales directly with model race intensity.
US airlift of Taiwan chips conditional on Chinese blockade reflects decoupling and export control tensions; resolves on US-China chip supply chain conflict during Taiwan crisis.
AI bubble pop by specified date. Infrastructure overbuilding and excess capex deployment lead to demand saturation, profitability compression, and market repricing; core capex-cycle-crash mechanism.
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Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index; semiconductor foundries and AI hardware supply chain lead.
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