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Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly triggers the deep-recession branch scenario, matching all core confirmatory signals.
US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers rate cuts; recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is the primary economic shock driving Fed policy reversal from tightening to easing.
The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly matches the scenario's core thesis of a stagflation-trap emerging from Fed policy reversal, combining high inflation with economic contraction.
US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the timeframe and dual conditions of elevated inflation and weak growth that define stagflation traps triggered by monetary policy missteps.
US recession in 2026 is the primary trigger for fed-policy-reversal scenario, causing Fed quantitative easing and unemployment increases.
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